ExxonMobil last Friday released its Energy & Carbon Summary: Positioning for a Lower-Carbon Future and its Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040. The reports highlight ExxonMobil’s analysis of 2 degree Celsius scenarios and include sensitivity analyses on electric vehicle penetration and renewables deployment. They are in response to a 2017 shareholder resolution seeking additional climate disclosures about the impacts of technology advances and global climate change policies on the company.
The Energy & Carbon Summary and a new special section in the annual Outlook for Energy include consideration of the impact on future energy demand from an analysis of multiple lower-carbon scenarios published by the Stanford University Energy Modeling Forum. The forum’s scenarios are publicly available and are used for analytical purposes, including by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
ExxonMobil’s Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 describes a rapidly growing global population and rise in living standards in developing countries that will drive a growth in worldwide energy demand of about 25 percent from 2016 to 2040. At the same time, energy efficiency gains and gradual reductions in the GHG intensity of the energy system, will help to moderate energy use and reduce by nearly 45 percent the carbon intensity of the global economy, according to the report.
The Outlook predicts a rise in electric vehicles as well as efficiency improvements in conventional engines. This will likely lead to a peak in liquid fuels use by the world’s light-duty vehicle fleet by 2030. However, oil will continue to play a leading role in the world’s energy mix.
“Our in-depth analysis shows that even if every light-duty vehicle in the world was fully electric by 2040, the demand for liquids could still be similar to levels seen in 2013,” said Wojnar. “This is because of growing demand from commercial transportation and the chemical sector.”
The Outlook for Energy is ExxonMobil’s long-range forecast developed through data-driven analysis, reflecting broad knowledge of energy markets and the expertise of economists, engineers, and scientists. It examines energy supply and demand trends for approximately 100 regional/country areas, 15 demand sectors and 20 different energy types. ExxonMobil uses the forecast as a foundation for its business strategies and to help guide multi-billion dollar investment decisions.
Key findings from this year’s Outlook:
- In 2040, oil and natural gas continue to supply about 55 percent of the world’s energy needs; oil continues to provide the largest share of the energy mix with demand rising about 20 percent driven by commercial transportation and chemicals.
- Nuclear and renewable energy sources are likely to account for nearly 40 percent of the growth in global energy demand to 2040.
- The share of the world’s electricity generated by coal is expected to fall to less than 30 percent in 2040 from approximately 40 percent in 2016.
- Increasing electrification of light-duty vehicles is anticipated to grow strongly. In total, full hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and electric-only vehicles will be approaching 40 percent of global light-duty vehicle sales in 2040, compared to about 3 percent in 2016.
For more information on the Energy & Carbon Summary and Outlook for Energy, visit www.exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook.
To view ExxonMobil's 2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, click here