World demand for lubricants is expected to increase 2.3 percent per year to 43.9 million metric tons in 2017.  The fastest growth will be in Asia, supported by rising vehicle ownership rates and ongoing industrialization in large countries such as China.  Above average increases will also occur in South America, the Middle East, and Africa.  These regions will each experience healthy economic growth, rising manufacturing output, and expanding motor vehicle parks -- all of which will contribute to gains in lubricant consumption.  In contrast, demand will remain nearly flat in the developed countries of North America and Western Europe, where efficiency gains will offset the effects of rising economic and industrial output.  Although volume growth will be restrained in these regions, lubricant suppliers will benefit from increasing demand for premium, high-value products such as synthetic and bio-based lubricants. These and other trends are presented in World Lubricants, a new study from The Freedonia Group, Inc., a Cleveland-based industry market research firm.

 

According to the study, engine oils constitute the largest share of lubricant consumption by product type.  Although rapidly growing motor vehicle parks will support gains, engine oils will be subject to downward pressure from lengthening drain intervals, and as a result will grow in line with the average pace.  Hydraulic fluids and process oils will see the fastest gains, due to the wide range of applications these products are used in. 

 

Motor vehicle aftermarket demand accounts for the largest share of lubricant consumption globally.  Demand for motor vehicle lubricants will increase quickly in many developing countries due to rapid growth in the number of cars and trucks in use.  However, advances in lubricant quality will allow for longer drain intervals, restraining stronger growth in all regions.

 

Demand for lubricants used in the manufacturing market will see healthy growth, driven by rising manufacturing output especially in developing countries.  Asia, Eastern Europe, South America, the Middle East, and Africa will benefit from the continued shift of global manufacturing activity to these regions.  Gains in other markets, including agriculture, construction, and non-motor vehicle transportation, will in the aggregate outpace those in both the motor vehicle and manufacturing markets through 2017.  Healthy economic growth, investment in infrastructure and other construction, and the increasing mechanization of the economies in developing countries will result in strong performance in these markets.

 

WORLD LUBRICANT DEMAND (thousand metric tons)
% Annual Growth
Item	2007	2012	2017	2007- 2012	2012- 2017
Lubricant Demand	37200	39150	43900	1.0	2.3
North America	10380	9430	9600	-1.9	0.4
Western Europe	5260	4600	4590	-2.6	--
Asia/Pacific	12750	15550	19000	4.1	4.1
Central & South America	2100	2350	2650	2.3	2.4
Eastern Europe	3530	3660	4010	0.7	1.8
Africa/Mideast	3180	3560	4050	2.3	2.6

 © 2013 by The Freedonia Group, Inc.

World Lubricants (published 07/2013, 477 pages) is available for $6300 from The Freedonia Group, Inc., 767 Beta Drive, Cleveland, OH  44143-2326.  For further details contact Corinne Gangloff by phone 440.684.9600, fax 440.646.0484 or e-mail pr@freedoniagroup.com.