While global consumption of finished lubricants is estimated to grow annually at 1.7 percent, global lubricant additive consumption is projected to grow at 2.2% per year from 4 million metric tons in 2012 to 4.5 million tons by 2017, research and consulting firm Kline & Co., based in Parsippany, N.J., projected in a webinar last week.

Upshi Ghosh, project manager for Kline’s energy practice, presented the webinar on the study, “Global Lubricant Additives: Market Analysis and Opportunities.”

Global consumption of finished lubricants in 2012 is estimated by Kline at 39 million tonnes. Kline valued 2012’s global lubricant additive consumption of 4 million tons at $13.3 billion.

By lubricant categoriy, additive consumption in 2012 of heavy-duty motor oil accounted for 33 percent of global demand and passenger car motor oil accounted for 27 percent, Kline found. Additives used in other automotive oils accounted for 7 percent, additives in metalworking fluids accounted for 14 percent, industrial engine oils accounted for 13 percent, and general industrial oils accounted for 4 percent. Other types accounted for the remaining 2 percent..

Dispersants, VII, and detergents are the top three function classes accounting for 70% of total consumption in 2012, with dispersants accounting for 25 percent, viscosity index improvers, 24 percent, and detergents with 21 percent. They were followed by antiwear agents at 7 percent; antioxidants, 5 percent; corrosion inhibitors and friction modifiers, each 4 percent; and emulsifiers at 3 percent. Other types accounted for the remainder.

Please note that the study excluded aftermarket oil additives.

PCMO and HDMO additives account for 60 percent of global additive demand due to more additization in HDMO and PCMO products, as compared to industrial products,” Ghosh noted..

She noted that the ACEA 2012 European Oil Sequence is tuned towards providing some degree of biodiesel compatibility. “The increasing penetration of biodiesel led to increased use of antioxidants,” to handle sludge, acids and oil thickening issues, Ghosh said. Growing use of biofuel in North America means this same need is on the wish-list for the PC-11 heavy-duty engine oil upgrade, due in 2016 for North American trucks.

She also noted that the shift from monogrades to higher-performance oils and multigrades will lead to an increase in the consumption of additives such as dispersants, antioxidants, and viscosity modifiers.

In reference to extended drain intervals, she noted that to make engine oils more durable, an up-treat of antioxidants and dispersants will be required.

On the PCMO side, Ghosh said the trends affecting the formulation of PCMO and demand for additives in this product category include the introduction of new specifications such as ILSAC’s GF-5 and GF-6 which should increase the consumption of additives such as antioxidants and friction modifiers. .

She noted that the continuous trend towards lower viscosity PCMO grades will increase the use of friction modifiers and that the extension of drain intervals for PCMO will result in an increase in dispersant and antioxidant treat rates. Also, with usage of flexible fuel vehicles that use ethanol, an increase is expected for rust and corrosion inhibitors, as well as increase in emulsion retention.

Regarding metalworking fluids, she said the trend towards greater use of paraffinic basestock, especially Group II and Group III, is likely to result in some changes in additive use.

With hydraulic fluids, there is a trend towards low-zinc and ashless fluids. Share of Zinc-free hydraulic fluids is expected to grow in the next 5 years, up from 7% of the total market in 2012 to 12% of the market in 2017. Rising demand for fire-resistant fluids is driving the usage of corrosion inhibitors, VIIs, and emulsifiers for ester based fluids, Ghosh said.