During a webinar on Tuesday November 22, covering the below mentioned study report, George Morvey, Industry Manager, Kline's Energy/Petroleum Practice, highlighted the current size of the global finished lubricants market by geographic region and product categories and analyzed the current and projected demand for conventional and synthetic lubricants. Morvey emphasized that "synthetics" includes API Group III and above (Group IV and Group V).

The presentation, Global Market Trends for Synthetics and Conventional Lubricants combined two studies, Global Lubricants and Global Synthetic Lubricants. The former is based on Kline's 14th annual assessment on the global finished lubricant industry, published November 2016, the later is based on Kline's 4th assessment of the global synthetic lubricants industry, published also in November 2016.

According to the study, Morvey said that Kline estimates global finished lubricant demand at 38.8 MT in 2015, down from 39.4 MT 2014 lead by Asia Pacific. Global lubricant demand is forecast to reach 40 MT by 2020, with greatest growth rate in Africa and Middle East followed by South America.

Regarding the global lubricant demand by leading country market, 2015, the top 13 countries account for 70 pct of the total demand. The gap between #1 and 2, United States and China, widens given the contraction in China in the Commercial Automotive Lubricants and Industrial Oils and Fluids segments. India, although a bright spot, follows at a distant 3rd.

Lubricant demand in China, Brazil, and Russia combined declined by 624 KT 2015 compared to 2014, resulting in overall global demand declining. The greatest percentage growth is in Thailand, South Korea, Mexico at approximately 2 to 2-1/2 percent each.

"Synthetic lubricants is the solitary bright spot in an otherwise dark global market. Synthetic lubricant demand growth has been resilient despite the global recession" said Morvey. This is due to OEM technical demand, supply push, consumer awareness/acceptance, government/industry regulations, affordability/economics and continued end user loyalty.

Global synthetics PCMO penetration reached 33% in 2015, up from 29% in 2013, while synthetics penetration expands from 17% of total global lubricant demand in 2015 to 22% in 2020, despite low-no volumetric growth. Europe is the highest consumption/demand region. Although low consumption/demand, the greatest growth rate of synthetic/semi-synthetic lubricants will be Africa Middle East with a CAGR of approximately 12%, followed by South America.

According to the study, Shell continues as the #1 global supplier of finished lubricants for the 10th consecutive year, followed by ExxonMobil, BP/Castrol, Chevron, TOTAL, PetroChina, Sinopec, Idemitsu, Fuchs and JX Holdings, rounding out the top 10.

ExxonMobil, Shell and BP/Castrol lead as the largest suppliers of synthetic/semi synthetic lubricants. At a distant 4th is TOTAL, followed by Chevron, JX Nippon, Idemitsu, Valvoline, Fuchs and Phillips 66. The top 10 suppliers of synthetic/semi synthetic lubricants combined account for an estimated 67% of total volume in 2015.