The world of energy faces some tough challenges in the decades ahead, particularly in meeting increasing demand with less environmental impact, according to data published in the 80 page BP Technology Outlook, which was launched in BP's London office last Monday. The BP Technology Outlook shows how technology can play a major role in meeting these challenges by widening energy resource choices, transforming the power sector, improving transport efficiency and helping to address climate concerns out to 2050.
Technology opens up a whole range of possibilities across the energy sector, said Bob Dudley, BP Group chief executive. It can bring great value to consumers and businesses, and it can also disrupt and challenge existing models. Today, for the first time, we are sharing our analysis of energy technologies and the options they present society in the quest for an abundant, sustainable and lower carbon energy future.
The BP Technology Outlook finds that simply applying today's best technologies to discover oil and gas resources could significantly increase 'proved reserves' from 2.9 trillion barrels of oil equivalent to 4.8 trillion barrels - nearly double the 2.5 trillion barrels required to meet projected cumulative global demand through to 2050.
According to the report, liquid fuels will continue to dominate global transportation through to 2035 and beyond, largely due to their high energy density. The average efficiency of new light-duty vehicles is expected to improve by 2-3% per year as a result of increased hybridization and improved powertrains, combined with advanced fuels and lubricants.
By 2050, electric vehicles could be approaching cost-parity with the internal combustion engine, due to advances in battery technology, while fuel cell vehicles could still have further to go.
In the power sector, which currently accounts for 38% of world primary energy demand, gas and coal-fired power are generally the most competitive today. BP's analysis predicts wind and solar will continue reducing costs at around 14% and 24% respectively per doubling in installed capacity, consistent with past performance, and hence become more competitive over time.
The BP Technology Outlook is available online at www.bp.com/technology.
