The global lubricants market is flat, up only 1% with an estimated 39.2 million tons in 2013 compared to 38.8 million tons in 2012. In terms of lubricants volume consumed, the United States continues to be the largest country market, although its total global volume has now dropped from 25% to below 22%. Russia has surpassed Japan and is now the fourth largest country market. Both North America and Western Europe continue to stagnate below pre-recession levels. Though Asia and other developing regions picked up in 2011, the market lost steam in 2012, most notably in China, down 1.1%.
What are we to make of this information? Analyzing the finished lubricants business is a tricky endeavor, one made easier with the right tools. Kline & Companys LubesNet, a comprehensive database of finished lubricants demand, is now in its eighth year, LubesNet provides users with Klines estimates of lubricants demand from 2008 to the base year of 2013, as well as FutureView forecasts to 2017 and 2022. LubesNet provides a breakdown of data at the global, regional, country market, market segment, product type, product category, and viscosity grade levels.
Global lubricants demand is projected to grow at <2% per year to reach 42.1 million tons by 2017. Kline predicts that China will be the leading market by 2015/2016. In addition to volumetric growth, quality levels are also improving, offering opportunities for all industry players. Another observation made by Kline is that the continuing global migration to lower visgrade PCMO will result in higher penetration of synthetics, semi-synthetics, higher revenues, and conversely longer ODIs and lower overall PCMO demand. The use of lower visgrade PCMO varies considerably by country, presenting trends, challenges, and opportunities for all industry players. The bottom line is that the demand for high performance lubricants is expected to grow even faster in the future, in both developed and developing countries.
Kline is offering the eighth edition of its comprehensive LubesNet, with supporting information for all 52 country markets. The database also includes estimated automotive and industrial lubricants supplier market share, synthetic penetration by leading lubricant type, vehicle parc size, and type and segmentation definitions.
